outside the box thinking is not valued among conservatives, especially not once it attacks fox news

one of the few smart voices among republicans over the last couple of weeks was former bush speech writer and american enterprise institute fellow david frum. in his now famous blog entry called waterloo frum argues that the health care reform vote or better republican’s consistent “no” would not be seen as a win for republicans but rather as their waterloo:

Could a deal have been reached? Who knows? But we do know that the gap between this plan and traditional Republican ideas is not very big. The Obama plan has a broad family resemblance to Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts plan. It builds on ideas developed at the Heritage Foundation in the early 1990s that formed the basis for Republican counter-proposals to Clintoncare in 1993-1994.

Barack Obama badly wanted Republican votes for his plan. Could we have leveraged his desire to align the plan more closely with conservative views? To finance it without redistributive taxes on productive enterprise – without weighing so heavily on small business – without expanding Medicaid? Too late now. They are all the law.

he makes the more than valid point that republicans should have engaged in the debate rather then be the opposition of “no”. well now, just a couple of days after the vote and the blog frum is no longer with the american enterprise institute:

Mr. Frum said he was taken out to lunch by the president of the organization, Arthur C. Brooks. He said Mr. Brooks told him the institute valued a diversity of opinion, and welcomed that one of its scholars had become such a high-profile critic of Republican legislative leaders. Mr. Frum, who has been with the institute since 2003, said that he was asked if he would considering being associated with the institute on a nonsalaried basis.

the AEI so far seems to argue that this has nothing to do with the waterloo arguments. and to a degree they might be right. it might not be the argument mentioned above from his column that did him in, but this section of the same waterloo blog entry:

There were leaders who knew better, who would have liked to deal. But they were trapped. Conservative talkers on Fox and talk radio had whipped the Republican voting base into such a frenzy that deal-making was rendered impossible. How do you negotiate with somebody who wants to murder your grandmother? Or – more exactly – with somebody whom your voters have been persuaded to believe wants to murder their grandmother?

after all, you do not mess with fox news. makes one wonder if fox news and limbough (btw, has he moved yet?) pulled some strings here because they felt unhappy about being singled out.

for conservatives, and the republican party this is bad news. because they seem to have a problem with smart people within their ranks. i just finished reading a piece at ordinary gentlemen about the problems of the republican party, and the story points out:

Republicans and conservatives may have experienced a euphoric taste of resurgent popularity and shot of life with the emergence of charismatic and defiant personages like Sarah Palin and the win of Senator Scott Brown over what is broadly understood to be the dismal candidate of Martha Coakley. But the long term demographics line up squarely against Republicans and their conservative base and they have for some time.

and for more detail, here is the gallup poll graph that should be the most worrying for republicans and maybe even more so conservatives, because they might lose their home in the republican party. look at that first bar … that is a reduction in college grad americans moving away from the republican party. of all the demographics, that is the one with the largest negative jump. now long term this is also the demographic that engages in politics, that has money to give to causes … so while i don’t want to ring the death bell for the GOP here this data is serious. and for the conservative groups to trample on their few intellectual leaders that they have left (like frum and last year buckley) is dangerous. yes, palin is a crowd pleaser and fox news is a loud mouthpiece, but they will alienate the american center, and without the center the republicans have no chance of winning elections.

republicans are always talking about reagan, but i have to say that i doubt that he would have liked this movement of the GOP. after all while not the brightest guy in the room, he knew he needed bright people around him, and this didn’t just mean that he needed bright yes men (and women) like bush, but people with an opinion. following in the step of bush, the GOP seems to now move towards getting rid of any dissent in their lines, mostly driven by fox and other so called conservative loud mouths.

ipad is opening up new but traditional money streams for old media

while the ipad is a fairly new tech device, it looks like it will be a perfect medium for old content. this does not mean that old media companies will be able to relay on the ipad to keep them alive forever, but it looks like it is a life line for them. there will be a lot of work for them to make sure they will survive ipad media 2.0 but i think that they will have the upper hand in ipad media 1.0. once people are getting their ipads they will want to use them. and companies like the nyt, wsj, mlb … are all getting ready to provide content for these first generation ipad owners. and with their brand recognition they will likely be the ones that will have user’s mind share. and judging by this story on paid content they are for now also attracting new ad dollars:

Ad units on the iPad are attracting big-name advertisers. The NYT reports that a high-end credit card company has purchased its iPad ad inventory for the device’s first two months on the market, while brands, like FedEx and Buick, are buying ads on the apps of other publications, including the WSJ, Newsweek, Time (NYSE: TWX) and Reuters (NYSE: TRI). The NYT says the going rate is $75,000 to $300,000 “for a few months of exclusivity” on one of these apps.

and on top of this, it looks like some of these companies will ask their users for a premium:

The WSJ’s app may cost $17.99 a month.

with color graphics and all kinds of interactive content companies like the wsj can probably justify the premium. all good news. and i think all of these orgs will come up with great products. their main competition? there are blogs and other new media entities like huffington post and then also apps like instapaper, read it later … and once ipad native a google reader app. while google has more then enough resources to create an app like that (and they might already be working on it), i doubt new media entities are working on it, they will expect their users to use their web sites … nice thought, but it won’t work. media consumption on the ipad, the iphone, and other smart phones and tablets will happen via apps … say good bye to search, say good bye to the browser.

the threat to old media outlets like nyt and wsj will come from intelligent content aggregation apps that work seamlessly across devices, apps, and the browser (which will be used on computers) but the apps will be used on smart phones, tablets, tvs … the google reader has a good shot at getting a big slice of the content cake, but it will have to get pretty … think of pointcast but in 2010 on a tablet. will old media move fast enough? i don’t know. they will have a life line (if tablets will sell) but after that it will require them to innovate at a much faster pace than they have shown they are capable of. the good thing is that free is not necessary the primary business model anymore.

can anyone tell jokes better than old jews?

more jokes can be found on the web site old jews telling jokes

palm is toast … will elevation partners start to get it?

elevation partners really believed in palm and the pre and the web os. they poured hundreds of millions into the company. the hope was that the pre would save the company. it was a huge bet, and it was a bet that they lost. palm just announced their most current quarterly results and here are the key numbers:

Palm sold just 408,000 smartphones to consumers in its last quarter. But it shipped 960,000 smartphones to its retail partners

i have said it before and i will say it again, the pre was just too little too late. the problem of palm was (and is) that they thought they were apple and could go it alone … create the software and create the hardware. they were could on the software but the hardware just wasn’t sexy enough. i think their only chance would have been to go the google route and make the software available to players like htc or motorola, but even that train has left the station now that google’s android is there.

it is sad to see one of the great device companies die, but the company just made too many mistakes. after apple came out with the iphone they should have aggressively opened up their web os. that didn’t happen. and now the company sells as many phones as apple will likely sell ipads (a product that no one has even held in their hands yet).

daniel kahneman on happiness

my favorite quote of the speech is “we think of our future as anticipated memories”